The L452R mutation, “carried in particular by the Delta variant”, is present in nearly 40% of the tests screened in France. In metropolitan France, this rate varies from 30 to 60% depending on the region.
The question is no longer whether the Delta variant will become the majority in France, but rather when. According to the latest data published by Public Health France, at least 39.7% of the tests screened between June 26 and July 2 now present the L452R mutation, “carried in particular by the Delta variant”, which initially appeared in India.
Be careful, however, we cannot say that 39.7% of Covid-19 cases in France are linked to the Delta variant.
Between June 26 and July 2, 17,208 tests were carried out in our country. Of these, 8,776 were screened (51%) – this is one of the methods used to detect the presence of variant-related cases among positive tests, by identifying certain active molecules of a virus. Of these 8776 tests screened, at least 3484 had the L452R mutation (39.7%).
The map below indicates, region by region, the rate of tests with the presence of the L452R mutation among the tests screened where it is sought and interpreted. Click on the region you are interested in for more details.
We have chosen not to display data for certain regions (Corsica, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Mayotte), the number of tests screened there being too low and therefore difficult to interpret.
If the rate of tests with the presence of the L452R mutation is still in the minority, their rate is increasing rapidly everywhere in mainland France. At the national level, the mutation was detected in only 2% of the tests screened on June 6, in 7% on June 16, in 20% on June 26 and therefore nearly 40% now.
On Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, in Île-de-France and New Aquitaine, the L452R mutation is already present in the majority of the tests screened. In Normandy, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, this will be the case in a few days if the trend remains the same. To see the development in your region, see the graph below.
Being around 60% more contagious than the Alpha variant, which first appeared in the UK, the Delta variant could become the majority within a few days. According to the Minister of Health Olivier Véran, “a wave is possible from the end of July” because of its spread.
In the United Kingdom, where the Delta variant represents more than 95% of new cases of Covid-19, there has been an outbreak of contaminations in recent weeks. For the moment, however, the number of serious cases – hospitalizations and deaths – does not seem to be soaring as in previous waves.
In France, the Delta variant could represent “80 to 90% of contaminations” by the end of August, estimated the epidemiologist and member of the Scientific Council Arnaud Fontanet last week on BFMTV-RMC.
Louis Tanca BFMTV reporter