already a bounce? Can we avoid a 4th wave?

CORONAVIRUS. The number of Covid-19 cases is on the rise again in France, reinforcing fears of an epidemic rebound at the start of the school year. In this context, the issue of compulsory vaccination of caregivers is a little more important in the debate.

The essential

News for Tuesday, July 6

  • While in France, the Delta variant (or Indian variant) still worries the authorities, another mutation of Covid-19, called Delta Plus, is also under close surveillance. Even if its circulation is still low, this strain, also appeared in India, has been classified as a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization (WHO). In France, eight cases linked to this variant have been detected to date.
  • According to the latest weekly report from Public Health France, the number of new cases is increasing among those under 50 years old, and more particularly among 20-29 year olds. In this age group, the incidence rate is 52, against 30 for 30-39 year olds and 22 for 40-49 year olds.
  • The compulsory vaccination of caregivers is still debated in France. After a column published in the JDD by nearly 100 doctors, calling on the government to take this decision as soon as possible, Amélie de Montchalin, Minister of Transformation and the Civil Service, spoke out in favor of the vaccination of caregivers on BFMTV, this Tuesday. The minister considers however “disproportionate” to extend the measure to public officials for the time being.

Monday, July 5, 2021, the number of new daily cases of coronavirus continues to increase in France. The balance sheet reports 796 additional cases, or 287 more than last Monday. Hospitalizations are still decreasing, with 7,806 patients treated, or 107 less, and 1,077 people in intensive care, or 27 less. Figures to be taken with a grain of salt, like every Monday, because of the weekend which has just ended. The shadow of a fourth wave continues to hang while the government tries to curb it by proposing to study the compulsory vaccination of caregivers if the epidemiological situation evolves from bad to worse by the end of the summer. Here is the latest data:

  • 5,786,999 cases confirmed by PCR (nursing home included), i.e. 796 more
  • 111,197 deaths in total (nursing homes included), i.e. 36 more
  • 84,724 hospital deaths, 36 more
  • 7,806 people currently hospitalized, i.e. 107 fewer
  • 1,077 people currently in intensive care, i.e. 27 fewer
  • 137 new admitted to hospital (+96) and 30 to intensive care (+18)
  • 385,013 people discharged from hospital, i.e. 201 more
  • Test positivity rate: 0.87%, i.e. 0.03 point more
  • Incidence rate: 22.82 cases / 100,000, i.e. 1.34 point more

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Irène Frachon encourages the French to get vaccinated

Irène Frachon, the pulmonologist who revealed the Mediator scandal, took a position in favor of vaccination in a column published in Le Parisien. “As a whistleblower on the Mediator, I see the question coming back on social networks: ‘What does Irène Frachon think of the Covid vaccination?’ by people generally convinced that I would be, as a whistleblower for a long time opposed to the health authorities, ‘inevitably’ hostile to these vaccines. However, it is quite the opposite that I think! “, she writes in this article. platform.

The pulmonologist also refuses that the Mediator case “be used to worsen the drama of the pandemic, to support a mistrust which is this time very misplaced and deleterious” according to her. “For [les vaccins] which have been validated in Europe, their very high efficacy demonstrated in studies conducted before their marketing authorization was confirmed by analyzes carried out on large numbers of vaccinated populations. The benefit is proven and massive, ”she says.

A report of the Covid on the rise again on Monday

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This Monday, July 5, 2021, today’s figures show an increase in cases of contamination of Covid-19 cases in France. Indeed, there was, over 7 days, an average of 533 more cases compared to the previous sliding week. Despite this increase in the numbers of cases of coronavirus contamination, in hospitals, the decline in the number of patients admitted to hospital and in intensive care continues, in a trickle manner. At the hospital, they were 137 to be admitted within 24 hours; or 8 less than last Monday. In intensive care, there were 30 admissions, 11 less than last Monday. In short, the curve goes up slowly even if we are still far from the incidence rate.

A third dose of vaccine to protect the elderly?

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Info 4 of July 5, 2021.
If the government is considering the project to make vaccination compulsory for health professionals, the Minister of Health assured Friday, July 2 that this would not concern the entire population. However, another proposal is also under discussion, that of administering a third dose of vaccine to the elderly. “The elderly, although vaccinated, are likely to have a severe form […] with a risk greatly reduced by the vaccine, but when you are 90-95 years old, your immune system responds less well “explained Olivier Véran on June 29 on France Info before continuing:” This is why we plan to do a third vaccination booster at the start of the school year for the elderly in nursing homes, perhaps it will be necessary to do it to boost their immunity. “The Minister made it clear that the device would only apply to the elderly according to the opinion of different scientists.

Once again, it is the emergence and progression of the Delta variant that justifies the implementation of all these devices. The so-called “Indian” variant is described as 60% more contagious than the Alpha (or British) mutation, this characteristic allows it to spread much faster and allows it to become dominant. Public Health France is monitoring the variant closely but is not yet able to say whether it causes more serious forms of the disease.

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As every Thursday, Public Health France took stock of the coronavirus situation in France on July 1, 2021 in its last weekly epidemiological update, covering week 25 (from June 21 to 27). The organization confirms that the downward trend has continued but to a lesser extent compared to previous weeks. Vaccination has also experienced a decline, especially among the elderly. Faced with this slight decline, she recalls the need “to maintain a high level of adherence to preventive measures”, all the more so in a context where the Delta variant is progressing.

Stagnant indicators. The positivity rate and the incidence rate, the two measures closely scrutinized, were still on a downward trend at the end of June, but very slowed down, suggesting the current increase. The positivity rate was evaluated at 0.8% in W25 (against 0.9% in W24, ie -0.1 point). As for the national incidence rate, it was 19 per 100,000 inhabitants in W25, still lower compared to the consolidated rate of the previous week (24 cases / 100,000 inhabitants in W24, ie -23%). Overseas, the situation remains worrying in Guyana. The territory has the highest incidence rates, hospitalizations and critical care admissions in France, but in one week, Public Health France noted a slight improvement with a drop in the incidence rate of 18 points ( 234 / 100,000 in S25 against 285 / 100,000 in S24). In Martinique, Guadeloupe and Reunion, this rate increased by a few points, but remains contained, only the island of the Indian Ocean reached 140 cases / 100,000 inhabitants.

In the hospital environment, the repercussions of the decline of the epidemic are visible and health professionals are still taking their heads out of the water. The number of admissions has gradually declined since W15. The decrease in the number of declarations of new hospitalizations, observed since W15, continued in W25: 957 patients against 1,337 in W24, ie a decrease of 28%. In intensive care, this decrease continues to be observed with 159 patients admitted in W25 against 227 in W24.

Regarding variants of concern, at the national level, during the week of June 21 to 27, 2021, 8,1111 PCR and antigen tests were the subject of additional screening tests. The results indicate that the Delta variant spreads rapidly, it was detected in 20.5% of the tests screened against 10.5% in S24, it tends to become dominant in the next week in place of the worrying Alpha variants.

The Alpha variant represents 77.4% of the interpretable sequences in the results of the Flash # 11 survey against 86.5 in the Flash # 10. The worrying Beta variant, the majority at La Reunions, represents 9.5% of the results, 0.4% for the Gamma variant, the majority in Guyana. But the Delta variant observed a significant increase, going from 0.8% in the Flash # 10 survey to 8.2% in the most recent, “due in particular to a strong participation in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, where clusters linked to this variant were being investigated and where this proportion reached 31%.”

If the figures are encouraging and that the vaccination is progressing at a good pace, Public Health France reminds not to lower our guard and urges compliance with barrier gestures or the isolation period in the event of contamination. “The systematic adoption of barrier gestures remains essential for everyone, even among those who have been vaccinated. It is essential that each person presenting symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 isolates himself immediately and takes a test as soon as possible. Maintaining contact identification activities and encouraging vaccination, especially of people at risk of developing severe forms of the disease, remain important to help keep the dynamics of the epidemic down and fight against the disease. dissemination of variants of concern. “

Read also

Follow the evolution of the coronavirus in your town using the map below. Click on a department to display the list of municipalities. Also find all the details on this mapping and the full point by city and by department in our article on the Covid map in France.

Click on a department to consult the list of its towns.

Since mid-October 2020, Public Health France has been communicating incidence data (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) at the municipal level. The figures are at this stage communicated according to a scale (10, 20, 50, 150, 250, 500, 1000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The data are expressed on a rolling week, which means that they are calculated on a day D from the tests carried out between 3 and 9 days previously. To access information relating to the coronavirus in your town, enter its name into the search engine or click on its department in the map below.

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As a reminder, the incidence rate corresponds to the number of new cases of Covid-19 over a period of one week, compared to the total population of a territory (country, region, department or municipality). This indicator is generally expressed in number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The screening rate gives the number of people who have tested for the coronavirus out of the total number of inhabitants, during the period. It is also expressed most often on 100,000 inhabitants. Finally, the test positivity rate gives the percentage of positive tests for the coronavirus, compared to the total number of tests carried out over the period.

 
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