the Delta variant spreads, the drop in indicators slows down

the Delta variant spreads, the drop in indicators slows down
the Delta variant spreads, the drop in indicators slows down

CORONAVIRUS. The drop in incidence rates is no longer so glaring and the number of cases is rising slightly in places, as the Delta variant is gaining ground. The mutation could be at the origin of the phenomenon, Public Health France is monitoring its evolution closely.

[Mis à jour le 2 juillet 2021 à 8h45] The numbers speak for themselves. For several days, the number of new cases recorded daily has been on the rise again. At this rate, the milestone of 3,000 cases per day could soon be exceeded. In the hospital, too, a feeling of stagnation seems to set in. If the number of patients continues to decrease, the decline is more subtle. Sometimes even more new entrants than the day before are listed.

The Delta variant would be no stranger to this change of trend. The latest weekly report from Public Health France confirms that the mutation is progressing on French territory while the worrying variant Alpha is losing speed. The Flash # 11 survey, dated June 8, indicates that the mutation “has increased significantly” from 0.8% in the last survey to 8.2%. The scientists’ hypothesis on the capacity of the Delta variant to become the majority could be confirmed, and France would not be the only one in this situation. After ten weeks of decline in the coronavirus epidemic in Europe, the World Health Organization (WHO) sounded the alarm on Thursday, July 1. Last week, the number of cases increased by 10%, she warned. In question ? “The increase in brewing, travel, gatherings and the relaxation of social restrictions,” says the WHO. “There will be a new wave in the European region, unless we remain disciplined,” WHO regional director for Europe, Hans Kluge, warned Thursday. Deploring the fact that many people have not yet been vaccinated, the WHO expects the mutation to become “dominant by the end of August on the Old Continent” and represent up to 90% of positive cases.

In France, some scientists deem the fourth wave inevitable, but others continue to call for responsibility to try to prevent the announced scenario from happening. Everything will depend on the degree of compliance with the instructions and the vaccination coverage, “said Professor Didier Pittet on RTL, Thursday morning. The epidemiologist recalled that” it is normal for new, more contagious variants to take the place of old “and that it is possible to prevent the arrival of a new wave, but once again” everything depends on our ability to recognize clusters, to circumscribe them immediately, to stop them. You have to do a lot of testing so that you can keep the positivity rate as low as possible to control all these clusters. If they are not controlled, they can become more and more important and produce a new wave. “The Scientific Council already expressed this idea in its last report of June 29. It indicated that without a minimum of sanitary instructions, a fourth wave would occur in the fall.

As every Thursday, Public Health France took stock of the coronavirus situation in France on July 1, 2021 in its last weekly epidemiological update, covering week 25 (from June 21 to 27). The organization confirms that the downward trend has continued but to a lesser extent compared to previous weeks. Vaccination has also experienced a decline, especially among the elderly. Faced with this slight decline, she recalls the need “to maintain a high level of adherence to preventive measures”, all the more so in a context where the Delta variant is progressing.

Indicators still on the decline. The positivity rate and the incidence rate, the two measures closely scrutinized, continue to decline. The positivity rate was evaluated at 0.8% in W25 (against 0.9% in W24, ie -0.1 point). As for the national incidence rate, it was 19 per 100,000 inhabitants in W25, still lower compared to the consolidated rate of the previous week (24 cases / 100,000 inhabitants in W24, ie -23%). In Overseas France, the situation remains worrying in Guyana. The territory has the highest incidence rates, hospitalizations and critical care admissions in France, but in one week, Public Health France noted a slight improvement with a drop in the incidence rate of 18 points ( 234 / 100,000 in S25 against 285 / 100,000 in S24). In Martinique, Guadeloupe and Reunion, this rate increased by a few points, but remains contained, only the island of the Indian Ocean reached 140 cases / 100,000 inhabitants.

In the hospital environment, the repercussions of the decline of the epidemic are visible and health professionals are still taking their heads out of the water. The number of admissions has gradually declined since W15. The decrease in the number of declarations of new hospitalizations, observed since W15, continued in W25: 957 patients against 1,337 in W24, ie a decrease of 28%. In intensive care, this decrease continues to be observed with 159 patients admitted in W25 against 227 in W24.

Regarding variants of concern, at the national level, during the week of June 21 to 27, 2021, 8,1111 PCR and antigen tests were the subject of additional screening tests. The results indicate that the Delta variant spreads rapidly, it was detected in 20.5% of the tests screened against 10.5% in S24, it tends to become dominant in the next week instead of the alpha variants of concern.

The Alpha variant represents 77.4% of the interpretable sequences in the results of the Flash # 11 survey against 86.5 in the Flash # 10. The worrying Beta variant, the majority at La Reunions, represents 9.5% of the results, 0.4% for the Gamma variant, the majority in Guyana. But the Delta variant observed a significant increase, going from 0.8% in the Flash # 10 survey to 8.2% in the most recent, “due in particular to a strong participation in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, where clusters linked to this variant were being investigated and where this proportion reached 31%.”

If the figures are encouraging and that the vaccination is progressing at a good pace, Public Health France reminds not to lower our guard and urges compliance with barrier gestures or the isolation period in the event of contamination. “The systematic adoption of barrier gestures remains essential for everyone, even among those who have been vaccinated. It is essential that each person presenting symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 isolates himself immediately and takes a test as soon as possible. Maintaining contact identification activities and encouraging vaccination, especially of people at risk of developing severe forms of the disease, remain important to help keep the dynamics of the epidemic down and fight against the disease. dissemination of variants of concern. “

This Thursday, July 1, 2021, the trend of the last few days is confirmed. If in hospitals the decline continues, although a slowdown seems to be taking place, the number of new cases is gradually increasing. 2,664 were reported in the past 24 hours, 207 more than the day before and even 657 more than last Thursday. Over seven days, the average rose to 1,948 cases against 1,854 on Wednesday. In hospitals, 109 new admissions have been recorded in the past 24 hours. This is 49 less than Wednesday and 31 less compared to last Thursday. But in intensive care, there are 30 new arrivals, one less compared to Wednesday and three more than last Thursday. Here is the latest data:

  • 5,777,965 cases confirmed by PCR (nursing home included), i.e. 2,664 more

  • 111 111 deaths in total (nursing home included), or 29 more
  • 84,638 hospital deaths, or 29 more
  • 8,232 people currently hospitalized, i.e. 219 fewer
  • 1,162 people currently in intensive care, or 42 fewer
  • 109 new admitted to hospital (-49) and 30 to intensive care (-1)
  • 384,338 people discharged from hospital, i.e. 287 more
  • Test positivity rate: 0.77%, i.e. 0.01 point more
  • Incidence rate: 18.85 cases / 100,000, i.e. 0.17 point more

Read also

Follow the evolution of the coronavirus in your town using the map below. Click on a department to display the list of municipalities. Also find all the details on this mapping and the full point by city and by department in our article on the Covid map in France.

Click on a department to consult the list of its towns.

Since mid-October 2020, Public Health France has been communicating incidence data (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) at the municipal level. The figures are at this stage communicated according to a scale (10, 20, 50, 150, 250, 500, 1000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The data are expressed on a rolling week, which means that they are calculated on a day D from the tests carried out between 3 and 9 days previously. To access information relating to the coronavirus in your town, enter its name into the search engine or click on its department in the map below.

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As a reminder, the incidence rate corresponds to the number of new cases of Covid-19 over a period of one week, compared to the total population of a territory (country, region, department or municipality). This indicator is generally expressed in number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The screening rate gives the number of people who have tested for the coronavirus out of the total number of inhabitants, during the period. It is also expressed most often on 100,000 inhabitants. Finally, the test positivity rate gives the percentage of positive tests for the coronavirus, compared to the total number of tests carried out over the period.

 
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