By Alexandre G. Photos by My B. Posted on June 5, 2021 at 12:43 p.m. Updated on June 5, 2021 at 12:47 p.m.
In France, the markers of the Covid-19 pandemic continue to decrease even more rapidly than the predictions of epidemiological models. If hospitalizations and deaths are falling, the resurgence of the Indian variant throughout the territory and the reopening of the terraces raise fears of an upsurge of the virus. But let’s be happy: the news is pretty good!
Where is it‘Covid-19 epidemic in France ? Good news: over the last 7 days, epidemic indicators continue their decrease. For the 5th week in a row, the number of people in critical care is falling (below the threshold of 3,000 people on June 1), deaths of hospitalized patients due to coronavirus dropnt them too, under the bar of 100 daily deaths.
Moreover, the hospitalizations linked to Covid are more or less at the same levels as those observed in mid-May in 2020, just after the first confinement. However, beware of overconfidence in the face of a still virulent virus: the coronavirus reproduction rate went from 0.75 to 0.8 in one week, reaching 0.88 for intensive care admissions. To justify this slight increase, we must look for the start of the new school year, the effects of which are delayed. “This rise began at the beginning of May, which corresponds to the resumption of secondary school.“, explains to the World Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology at the University of Montpellier.
Fears surrounding the reopening of the terraces and the Indian variant
At the same time, the epidemic markers have not panicked since May 19, the official date of the reopening of the terraces and the 2nd stage of the deconfinement calendar. Some French regions attest to a decline in the epidemic despite the reopening: in Hauts-de-France, the incidence rate fell to 117 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, from 165 two weeks ago. To really see the first results of deconfinement, it seems better to wait another week.
Also, the epidemiological models developed by institutes such as the CNRS had not predicted such a decline in the Covid-19 epidemic in France. At the same time, these models are based on the old projections and data from the first two containment exits. “This shows that the models still have things to improve“, estimates the researcher. For the moment, the main concern remains the resurgence of the Indian variant in France, which raises fears of a resurgence of the epidemic.