the National Rally in the lead in the 1st round but Carole Delga wins in the second

With less than a year before the presidential election, national political issues seem to permeate more and more the 2021 Regional elections: a very recent IFOP poll gives the National Rally in the lead in the first round in Occitanie but outgoing Carole Delga PS president, winner in the second round.

This survey was conducted between May 21 and May 27, with a sample of 1,003 people registered on the electoral rolls, representative of the population of Occitania aged 18 and over: it was published this Tuesday morning June 1 by our colleagues Europe 1 and La Tribune.

4 points difference between RN and PS

In this “photograph at time T” taken 3 weeks before the first round, Jean-Paul Garraud, the leading candidate of the National Rally, is announced first in the first round with 30% of the votes, ahead of the outgoing president PS Carole Delga credited with 26%.

The list placed third would be that led by Aurélien Pradié (The Republicans) with 14%; Vincent Terrail-Novès for the presidential majority (LREM) would come just behind with 13%.

4 lists could be maintained

According to the electoral code, these first four lists could possibly be maintained in the second round, which would not be the case of that ofAntoine Maurice (EELV) which would rank fifth with 10%, ahead of the list of La France Insoumise led by the outgoing regional councilor Myriam Martin, credited with only 6% of the vote according to this poll.

Far behind, in the voting intentions expressed for this poll, the “Essential Union” list ofAnthony Le Boursicaud would be capped at 1%, ahead of the “Bastir l’Occitanie” lists of Jean-Luc Davezac and Malena Adrada supported by Force Ouvrière, both valued at barely 0.5%.

Attention, the margin of error of the polls is 2 or 3% more or less depending on the institute.

France 3 Occitanie will publish an exclusive poll on June 9. Day of the great Regional debate with the head of the lists, live on France 3 at 9:05 pm.

Head of the list of the National Rally of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Paul Garraud would come out on top of the 1st round of regional elections in Occitania, according to this poll.

© Pascal Guyot / AFP

Carole Delga winner in the end

In the absence of mergers of the lists between the two rounds, Jean-Paul Garraud and Carole Delga would obtain the same score of 31% each in the second round and everything would then be decided in the “third round”, ie when elected regional councilors will have to choose a president.

In this case and in all likelihood, Carole Delga should benefit from the support of the leftist lists and / or the presidential majority to see herself reelected.

However, the survey also studies the hypotheses of list mergers or withdrawals between the two rounds:

  • in the case of’a merge on the left between the lists of Carole Delga and Antoine Maurice – after all she gave her support to the EELV candidate during the Municipal 2020 in Toulouse – the outgoing president would win with 37% of the vote, ahead of Jean-Paul Garraud, who would remain at 30%, Vincent Terrail-Novès would come third with 17% of the votes and Aurélien Pradié 16%
  • in the case of’a withdrawal from the LREM list led by Vincent Terrail-Novès, Carole Delga would win there too with 40% of the vote.

Two other analyzes carried out in parallel with the purely “voting intentions” aspect bear interesting lessons:

  • first, from a geographical point of view: the RN list would win 35% of the votes in the former Languedoc-Roussillon region, much less in Midi-Pyrénées with 23%; conversely, the outgoing president PS would bring together 29% of voters in the former Midi-Pyrénées and 23% in Languedoc-Roussillon.
  • then, when one evokes the major current topics which will motivate the choices of the voters, the respondents place in their top 3 concerns “very priority” health (79%), the fight against delinquency (73%) and education including training in general (72%).

The paradox is that these three areas do not fall within the remit of the Regional Council – with the exception of vocational training.

The same goes for the fight against illegal immigration and that against delinquency, which respectively motivate 91% and 89% of potential voters in favor of the National Rally.

A taste of the presidential election

On the other hand, aid for economic development, support for businesses to recover from the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and, therefore, the fight against unemployment figure in the middle of the list of voters’ concerns, with some variations in the proportions according to their political edge; as for mobility, the dossier of more efficient and less polluting regional transport, this chapter comes at the end of the list even though it is one of the essential registers of the Region’s skills.

Clearly, as we wrote in the preamble, the issues and political themes of the 2022 presidential election appear to be swallowing up the debate in these elections, which are nevertheless supposed to respond to the daily concerns of the lives of the inhabitants of Occitania.

All the information on the Regionals in Occitanie.

Two debates on France 3 Occitanie

Our regional public television station, France 3 Occitanie, will organize two evenings of political debates:

  • the first, Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 9:05 p.m.: it will bring together the heads of the list Carole Delga (outgoing president), Jean-Paul Garraud (RN), Antoine Maurice (EELV), Aurélien Pradié (LR), Vincent Terrail-Novès (supported by LREM), Myriam Martin (LFI), Malena Adrada (Lutte Ouvrière), Jean-Luc Davezac (Ecologist and citizen Occitanie) and Anthony Le Boursicaud (Union Essentielle)
  • the debate between the two rounds, on Thursday June 24, 2021 at 5.45 p.m., will bring together the heads of the lists remaining in the race.

Without forgetting our election evenings, with results and reactions, on June 20 and 27 from 7 p.m. until midnight.

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