Regional elections: these regions where the RN has a real chance of winning

Regional elections: these regions where the RN has a real chance of winning
Regional elections: these regions where the RN has a real chance of winning

JUNE 20 AND 27 BALLOTS – Marine Le Pen wants to make regional elections a springboard for the 2022 presidential election. Paca, Hauts-de-France, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté … Focus on these regions highly coveted by the National Gathering.

VM – 2021-06-01T16:38:28.849+02:00

Between a historically weak left and a right torn over its strategy, the regional elections seem to offer the National Rally a unique window of fire, less than a year from the presidential election, to impose its image as the first opposition party to Emmanuel Macron .

This meeting did not escape Marine Le Pen. The declared presidential candidate sent her main lieutenants into battle, hoping, for the first time in the party’s history, to win at least one region. The conquest of such a territory would indeed constitute an unexpected springboard for the RN, always in search of a lasting territorial anchoring in spite of the conquests of the municipal elections. One region, in particular, catches the eye: Paca, where the RN offers itself the indisputable status of favorite in the first round. Other regions, however, deserve a spotlight.

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The 2021 regional and departmental elections

Mariani at the gates of power in Paca

Former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy joined the RN, the MEP Thierry Mariani has something to be happy about. For several weeks, all the polls have led to the same result: the RN candidate would come far ahead of the first round on June 20 and would be likely to win in the second, despite the list of union of the right concocted by the outgoing LR president, Renaud Muselier.

Granted more than 40% of the voting intentions in the first round, Thierry Mariani would clearly outstrip the Muselier list, benefiting in particular from the support of a third of the former voters of François Fillon in 2017. In the second round, the RN would win everyone the blows in the event of a triangular with the list on the left and would be neck and neck with Renaud Muselier in the second round in the event of withdrawal from the left.

“In Paca, the French can send a strong message by voting for the list of union and defense of the general interest carried by Thierry Mariani, against political maneuvers from another time. More than ever, hope is permit “, was thus rejoiced, on May 26, by the president of the RN.

A dynamic in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté is part of “of the top 3” regions that can be won by the RN, says Marine Le Pen. Why ? Because, in a regional political context of unstable alliances, the party’s candidate, Julien Odoul, tops the forecasts for the first round. A poll cited Tuesday by several media places the head of the RN list at 30%, far ahead of Gilles Platret (LR-DLF, 20%), who refused any alliance with LaREM, and outgoing PS president Marie-Guite Dufay (19%) ). In the second round, a quadrangular with maintenance of the LaREM list of Denis Thuriot (15%), perfectly possible, would be likely to consecrate the victory of the RN. A triangular with withdrawal from LaREM would, on the other hand, benefit Marie-Guite Dufay. Unless, as the Walkers hope, the withdrawal is made in reverse in favor of the candidate LaREM, if the latter were to precede the outgoing socialist president. In any case, the second round promises to be complex and could benefit the RN.

Other polls, also ordered by competing lists, would lead to the same scenario of an RN list leading in the first round. “It is certain that we almost won this region last time, that the confidence of the voters is getting stronger and stronger, election after election,” assured Marine Le Pen at a press conference on May 25. “So yes, of course, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté is one of the top three winnable regions.”

Hauts-de-France, a dream fiefdom but far from being won

The third region deemed winnable by Marine Le Pen is of course Hauts-de-France, a territory where the RN locally won several battles during the previous elections. For several years, Marine Le Pen, politically anchored in Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais) – she is Steeve Briois running mate in the departmental elections in this canton -, dreamed of winning a victory in this former left-wing stronghold.

The first weeks of the campaign of candidate RN Sébastien Chenu had also confirmed these hopes, the latter systematically placing himself in the wheels of the outgoing president, Xavier Bertrand, in the polls of the first round. On May 20, our Ifop Fiducial survey for LCI and Le Figaro Thus gave Xavier Bertrand in the lead (35%), followed closely by Sébastien Chenu (32%), far ahead of the other competitors, including the union list of the left of Karima Delli (20%).

However, the weakness of the LaREM list – despite the parachuting of several leading ministers – and the strength of Xavier Bertrand’s electoral base do not seem, for the time being, to tip the balance in favor of the RN. Our poll thus showed that the outgoing president of the region was able to be re-elected, including in the event of a triangular with the left, with nearly ten points ahead of Sébastien Chenu.

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Very present in other regions

The authorities of the RN begin to dream of other victories in the election of June 20 and 27. If the victory seems far from certain, the party of Marine Le Pen seems able to come first in the first round in two other regions.

In Occitania, an Ifop survey for Europe 1 and The gallery published Tuesday indeed gives the candidate RN Jean-Paul Garraud at the head of the first round, with 30% of the voting intentions, in front of the outgoing socialist president Carole Delga (26%), Aurélien Pradié (LR, 14%) and Vincent Terrail- Novès (LaREM, 13%). In the second round, however, Carole Delga would be able to keep the region, even if it means that the difference will be made within the framework of a “third round”, when the regional president is elected.

In the Grand-Est, a survey dating back to the end of April also placed candidate RN Laurent Jacobelli in the lead in the first round (28%), ahead of outgoing LR president Jean Rottner (24%), even if the latter had not yet launched his campaign at the time.

In Pays-de-la-Loire, a survey cited Tuesday by West France would give the LR-UDI list of outgoing president Christelle Morancais at the head of an uncertain first round (26%), ahead of the RN, environmentalists and LaREM, equally 21% of voting intentions. The RN candidate would thus register an increase of 5 points compared to the month of January.

In other regions, such as Normandy, New Aquitaine or Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the gap between the outgoing presidents and the RN candidate seems too large for there to be a surprise. This does not prevent to note that the RN is displayed particularly high on the whole of the national territory at three weeks of the poll.

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