BFMTV SURVEY – The current tenant of the Élysée may stay ahead of voting intentions in the first round, his score is crumbling, according to our latest opinion poll.
The Emmanuel Macron-Marine Le Pen match for the second round resumes colors. This is one of the lessons of our Opinion 2022- Elabe poll for BFMTV and the Express carried out with our partner SFR and published this Wednesday. In the first round, the Head of State is still in the lead in voting intentions (between 23 and 26% depending on the scenarios) but loses 2 to 3 points compared to our last study, dated October 6.
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The tenant of the Elysee would face in the second round the candidate of the RN (19%) who, for her part, is progressing significantly – from 1 to 3 points more depending on the assumptions on the right. Eric Zemmour is currently ranked third in the presidential election with 15 to 16% of voting intentions, up slightly (1 to 2%).
Bertrand still ahead of his LR competitors
As for the Republicans, Xavier Bertrand is stable with 13% of the voting intentions, while Valérie Pécresse (10%) and Michel Barnier (8%) are respectively up 2 and 3 points.
Yannick Jadot, for his part, retreats when he had experienced progress after his victory in the environmentalist primary. The MEP is now between 6 and 8% of voting intentions, down 1 to 3 points. He now follows Jean-Luc Mélenchon, still at 6%. Anne Hidalgo, she remains stable at 5% while Arnaud Montebourg is up slightly with 3% (+ 1 to 2 points).
The gap between Macron and Le Pen narrows in the second round
In the second round, the tenant of the Élysée remains largely in the lead (55%) in the event of a second round against Marine Le Pen (45%) but the gap is narrowing. In our last survey, he collected 60% of the voting intentions against MP RN.
This evolution is explained by a greater number of voters of the MP in 2017 who intends to go to the polls, and more broadly by the dynamics observed in the first round with the downturn in the vote for Emmanuel Macron.
In the event of a duel between Emmanuel Macron and Eric Zemmour, the gap between the two men would be clearer, with 61% and 39% respectively.
On the left, the desire for a single candidacy
Faced with the crumbling of left-wing candidacies, 69% of supporters call for a gathering of all candidates to have only one name on the starting line.
On the far right of the political spectrum, 76% of RN sympathizers want Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen to come together for a single candidacy in the 1st round. On the other hand, a rally between Eric Zemmour and the candidate who will be supported by the LR party is rejected by a majority of right-wing supporters with 58%.
Survey carried out on a sample of 1,300 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,200 registered on the electoral roll. Interrogation by Internet from 25 to 27 October 2021. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and category of agglomeration. Margin of error between 1.2 and 3.2 percentage points.