The executive couple remains solid in our Odoxa-Dentsu-Consulting barometer for La Dépêche, LCP-National Assembly and Public Senate. On the right, Xavier Bertrand is in the lead for the presidential election.
While the executive appears, 7 months before the presidential election, as much more popular than his predecessors were – Emmanuel Macron wins 3 points to 42% of favorable opinions and Jean Castex 2 points to 40% – our political barometer Odoxa-Dentsu-Consulting for Midi Libre, LCP-National Assembly and Public Senate for the month of September shows that on the right, Xavier Bertrand, who left the first in August 2020 in the race for the Elysee Palace, widens the gap on his competitors and even has the luxury of being more popular than Edouard Philippe.
The former Prime Minister remains the favorite personality of the French but is no longer that of right-wing sympathizers (excluding RN). Edouard Philippe, who is preparing to launch his micro-party next week, has fallen sharply (-9 points) and is now just behind Xavier Bertrand (59% against 60%). Valérie Pécresse is not far: with 55% she occupies third place. “But it is another personality than the two favorites who recorded the strongest progression: Michel Barnier. He is also the only right-wing personality to progress by gaining 10 points with his sympathetic base. With 46%, it comes in 6th position, ”observe Céline Bracq and Gaël Sliman, CEO and President of Odoxa.
Popularity on the right: Xavier Bertrand ahead of Edouard Philippe
In terms of membership, our survey also shows that with 19% membership rating against 59% rejection rating, the French are three times more likely to reject Eric Zemmour rather than appreciate it. “It’s an honest position but not exceptional in terms of its visibility. Even among right-wing supporters outside the RN, Zemmour only arrives in 11th position. With 32% membership rating, he is doing significantly worse than Michel Barnier (46%), Valérie Pécresse (55%) or Xavier Bertrand (60%), ”explains Odoxa.
On the right, things are settled. The Republicans decided this weekend to abandon the primary for a congress to be held on December 4. “The two favorites of the right in the polls of intention to vote are a close match with the French – 49% prefer Bertrand, 42% Pécresse – but now a little less with supporters of the right as those of LR.
With 57% preference for the former and 60% for the latter, Bertrand has taken a certain lead over its main rival, ”explains Odoxa. A global advance that is found in the detailed judgments made on one and the other. On the 5 dimensions tested, Bertrand wins each time, slightly with the French, a little more clearly with sympathizers of the right in general and those of LR in particular. He is judged to be more “competent”, more “unifying” and is perceived more as having “the stature of a President of the Republic”.
But beware, the measurements of our survey do not relate to the electorate who will vote to decide between the candidates. And as for the 2016 primary which saw the elimination of Nicolas Sarkozy then the fall of Alain Juppé against François Fillon, the congress could also lead to surprises …