>> “Unprecedented” increase in gas
Regulated gas prices, updated monthly by the regulator, have seen a series of sharp increases recently. They increased by 8.7% on September 1, after more than 5% in August and nearly 10% in July.
Since the start of 2019, these prices have increased by 15.8%. The increase has been 16.7% since January 1, 2015, also notes the CRE. “This unprecedented increase is observed in all European and Asian countries. It is explained by the global economic recovery observed for several months and by the sharp increase in gas prices on the world market due to an exceptional context”, underlined the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE).
Among these technical factors: a tight liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, with a limited supply in Europe, European storage levels at their lowest for years, and finally maintenance problems on Russian infrastructures. “We expect gas prices in Europe and the UK to remain high at current levels throughout the winter “, predict experts from Wood Mackenzie, also highlighting the impact of the decline in British gas production.
>> Electricity: problem in sight
Regulated electricity sales tariffs are revised twice a year: they have increased by 1.6% in February, then 0.48% in August for individuals. But prices are currently skyrocketing in wholesale markets, raising fears a very strong increase next February.
On the futures market, electricity for delivery in 2022 in France has just broken a record at over 100 euros per MWh (the last record dated back to July 2008 with 93.29 euros per MWh). Even if France mainly produces its electricity with its nuclear power plants, the prices on the electricity market follow those of raw materials (gas and coal), which are rising sharply, and are also influenced by the increase in the prices of the allowances. CO2 emission.
>> At the pump: still far from the records
Diesel was worth 1.4417 euros per liter on average last week, according to figures from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. The super unleaded 95 E10 sold for 1.5589 euros. The two best-selling fuels in France have thus grown by 13% and 15% respectively since the start of the year. These prices essentially follow the rise in world crude prices, which have been rising for months with the global economic recovery pulling demand. Producing countries, which have long restricted their production in order to support prices, have also been slow to put barrels back on the market.
The barrel of Brent from the North Sea is currently moving between 70 and 75 dollars. This represents an important development for this benchmark crude which fell below the $ 20 mark in April 2020 in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis.. “Despite this increase, the price of Brent in 2021 remains low compared to the average of more than 90 dollars a barrel observed between 2007 and 2014”, however puts the IFP Energies nouvelles Institute (IFPEN) into perspective. Prices at the pump are also far from their records of recent years. Diesel thus reached 1.5331 euros in October 2018, just before the outbreak of the “yellow vests” crisis.