Vaccination against Covid-19: the example of Israel

Difficult to advocate for mass vaccination against Covid-19 when we observe what is happening in Israel. Here is the reflection sent to us by one of our readers.

vaccination (wikimedia Commons)

On August 30, 2021 on C à vous, Olivier Véran spoke about Israel, “ pioneer country in immunization »And to follow. They therefore serve as guinea pigs for the rest of the moat the So where are we in Israel, cited as a model to follow when starting vaccinations. Maywe with this model draw conclusions to have what to do and not to do, or musthe keep ignoring observation for the benefit of statisticians and modellers ?
Here is the curve of cases in Israel, since the start of the epidemic. It is clear that vaccination or no vaccination, there is no effect, if not worse, the more vaccinees there are, the stronger the waves:

Total failure of vaccination to stem the epidemic, to obtain this famous collective immunity that Indians obtained at 67.6% with the disease and early treatments?
What are the possible biases in reading this curve? We have explained here that the case curve might not be the best clue to compare, as it depends on the tests: the more you test, the more cases you have. Here is the test curve. It is more or less superimposable, so some will say that it is not worse, but that the last 3 waves are more or less the same given the more numerous tests.Tests in Israel

If these last 3 waves are therefore more or less identical, let us point out that the first was without vaccines or treatments, the second half vaccines, the last very vaccinated. This still confirms the lack of efficacy of vaccines, even in a country which is pushing forwards. It is the same in Iceland, more vaccinated than Israel: results of vaccination not obvious.

New confirmed cases

These findings are not confined to Israel or Iceland, 3 articles from the CDC, the University of Oxford and the UK Department of Health also state. Why is it not working? The first reason is that we vaccinate for the delta, with a vaccine made for the Wuhan strain, the second, is an immunity that is quickly exhausted over time, as for the seasonal flu.
If we had only one strain, non-mutant and long-lasting immunity, as with other conditions that benefit from vaccines, the result would be totally different. Laboratories and authorities knew this from the start because it is unique to the coronavirus.
So should we continue to vaccinate in the face of this failure? Can one more dose correct failure of both doses after 5-6 months? Yet the WHO slows down as best it can (like an arsonist) this third dose, because of the unknown risk of the ADE phenomenon, which is not certain, but which can be extremely serious, as it was for the vaccine against dengue, or in feline infectious peritonitis, caused by another coronavirus.

Are they hiding something from us?

At the beginning we were told that we were going to be 96% protected. We don’t talk about it anymore. Then we were told that everyone had to be vaccinated, including children although they were not affected by the disease, in order to obtain collective immunity. We don’t talk about it anymore. We now admit that when vaccinated, we catch and infect just as much! We are then told that the vaccine is only to prevent severe forms, while telling us that children who do not have severe forms should also be vaccinated. For adults, the only ones likely to present severe forms are over 60 years of age and co-morbidities, so why force the others? Are they still hiding something from us?
Does it really protect against severe forms, and at what level? The best way to find out objectively is to follow mortality, which does not depend on the number of tests.
So here is the death curve for Israel:

Covid death case

Let’s compare the two curves for September, 2020 and 2021, the first without any vaccine and the last, more vaccinated. That at the start of the year is disrupted by vaccination, which everywhere seems to make things worse at the start (we do not vaccinate in an epidemic period, doctors know), there is also the seasonal flu which may have potentiated. We then see a decrease in deaths of 15%. This at the present time may change (more, not less).
Are biases possible? The first is the variant. If the delta is 15% less harmful than the delta, there is no improvement, if it is more, the improvement is greater than this 15%. What is it? Difficult to know, because the difference is relatively small. The British compared the mortalities of the different variants in a report from the end of August. In those over 50 (too few deaths below to be significant), this gives 4.8% for alpha, 4.3% for beta, and 2.2% for delta, i.e. half the fatality than its predecessors.

Vaccine advantage

Where it gets complicated to be objective is that these numbers are global, and we should separate vaccinated and unvaccinated. However, it would be wrong to have the bulk of deaths borne by the unvaccinated, who are less and less numerous. There is no reason for this category to die more than before!
And there, everyone will find their account, some will see the glass half empty, others half full. The latest Israeli figures show that 390 vaccinated 2 and 3 doses died between August 10 and September 8, or 58.5% of deaths, while these vaccinated represent 62% of the population. Not very significant difference. On the other hand, if we look more closely, advantage to the vaccine. 277 deaths out of 3.45 million non-vax, against 390 deaths out of 5.65 million vax. 8 per 100,000 against 7 per 100,000, we find the 15% of our curve. On the other hand, if we only look at the over 60s, where the majority of deaths and the minority of non-vax are found. Vaccine advantage, for this category alone.

Deaths due to vaccination

Bias? We know them, it is that of the statistics little recorded for the vaccinated when things go wrong, we often die of coincidences unrelated to the disease or the vaccine … There is also the fact that vaccinated one dose and vaccinated two doses of less than 15 days are counted in the non vax. You develop a Covid or a vaccine disease 8 days after your dose and die from it, you
are classified as non-vax. To the figures of the latest data, we should add deaths due to vaccination, most of which are disputed. For those under 60, it suffices here to add only 15 (there are more) to reverse the trend, with the benefit / risk becoming negative. This is what Australians seem to be observing, their side effect base reporting 487 deaths after vaccines, for
167 deaths due to the disease since the start of vaccinations.
The UK’s figures are roughly similar to Israel’s for the vaccine benefit.
On the other hand, I am not sure thatin Seychelles, almost 100% vaccinated, we can say the same thing. Here is their immunization chart, cases and deaths since January.

seychelles

Vaccination began in the first week of January, cases appeared at the same time, deaths followed, everything being perfectly parallel. However, before vaccination, Seychelles had no problem with Covid, as shown by the curve of cases since early 2020.

confirmed cases-2

As you can see, it is difficult to form an opinion, everyone can have a different and well-argued opinion.
Some uncertainties that are not questionable, however : rapid ineffectiveness of the Wuhan vaccine on the delta variant (and worse for the coming mu?). Vaccinated, we still catch (as much?) The Covid, and we transmit as much. In certain sensitive places, vaccinated, you are also asked for a test, a justified precaution. Collective immunity impossible.
The figures seem to show uselessness under the age of 60, with a benefit / risk factor which seems to have been reversed, because originally evaluated by considering a 100% efficacy, lasting, with few known side effects. Benefit risk positive beyond 60 years with comorbidity, which if it does not prevent the disease, could divide by 2 the mortality. To be compared with the much higher effectiveness of Ivermectin + Azythro or Doxy on this population, observed in two French publications (P Loué and C Bernigaud) and more generally in the study requested by the WHO, where the raw analysis results reported by the authors show a reduction in mortality of 75%.
There is a rule in medicine, between two treatments, with equal effectiveness, always choose the least risky. It is also necessary to have this freedom of choice, and to demand it.

 
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