CDU in the survey low. According to surveys by election researchers, only around 20 percent wanted to give the Union parties their vote in the federal election on September 26th. It sounds like a debacle for Armin Laschet.
But will it be the same for his entire party? After all, the vast majority of CDU / CSU MPs in the still-Bundestag did not come to parliament via the Union’s electoral lists, but entered the Bundestag by direct mandate.
And it is conceivable that voters will remain loyal to their direct candidates in the constituencies. After all, it is about people who you know and who may be valued and chosen regardless of their party affiliation.
The second vote, however, is given to another party. Vote splitting is what electoral researchers call it. In the past, only a minority made use of it, but this time it could be different. Especially when a top candidate is less popular than his local party friends.
But what consequences would that have for the outcome of the election? The mathematician Prof. Christian Hesse designs the most likely scenario for BILD: We are threatened with the largest Bundestag of all time.
The statistician from the University of Stuttgart also explains how the seats are distributed after the election, who are entitled to so-called overhang seats and why our parliament continues to grow.
Federal election law – briefly explained by the expert
Every eligible voter has two votes: the first vote for a candidate in his constituency and the second vote for a party, explains math professor Christian Hesse from the University of Stuttgart. Whoever wins an electoral district moves into the Bundestag by direct mandate.
Hesse: “Surplus mandates arise when a party has won more direct mandates than it is entitled to based on the percentage of second votes.”
And further: “Other parties then receive additional compensation mandates so that each party is represented in the Bundestag according to its second share of the vote.”
Hesse: “The mandate relationships with the parties in the Bundestag will reflect the relationships with the second votes. A party that only won 20 percent of the second vote will be represented with almost exactly 20 percent of the seats, even if it had won a large number of constituencies and thus overhang seats. ”
Only if there were no compensatory mandates could a gap arise between the ratios of mandates and second votes. But the compensation mandates prevent that.
If not, a hypothetical example:
▶︎ Of the at least 598 seats in the Bundestag 299 are awarded directly in the constituencies. A total of 231 of these 299 direct mandates went to the Union in the last election.
▶︎ Let’s assume the following: The CDU / CSU loses the second vote and comes to the predicted around 20 percent. In the constituencies, however, the voters decide differently and the Union loses only a few direct mandates: 200 candidates make it directly to the Bundestag.
▶︎ Then the big offsetting of overhang and balancing mandates begins: Thumbs up so that the 200 winners of the direct mandates make up 20 percent of the MPs.
▶︎ If you also count, correct: There would now be around 1,000 members in parliament.
But it will not turn out quite that way, because election forecasts predict at least the CDU that it will also lose the direct candidates in many constituencies, to the SPD and – especially in Saxony – to the AfD.
Nevertheless, the number of MPs will skyrocket. Hesse: “It is critical to see that with the new election law from 2020, compensation mandates will only be allocated from the third overhang mandate. This measure should reduce the size of the Bundestag. But it misses its effect. “
How big will the new Bundestag be, Professor Hesse?
Current surveys see the CSU just under 30 percent, but still as the strongest political force in Bavaria, which will probably win 100 percent of the Bavarian direct mandates, explains the university statistician.
Hesse: “This large percentage difference in the CSU influences the size of the Bundestag more than corresponding differences in the other parties. Which is because, unlike the other parties, the CSU only competes in one federal state and therefore its overhang mandates have a strong leverage effect. ”
And now it comes: “Every single CSU overhang mandate requires 18 to 20 compensation mandates so that other parties are not disadvantaged in comparison with their second vote results,” calculates the university professor.
► As a result the Bundestag will then grow far beyond the target size of 598 seats, which it would have without any overhang seats.
► Brand: The fewer second votes the CSU wins in Bavaria, the bigger the Bundestag will be!
Hesse: “In the current polls of 30 percent for the CSU, 860 MPs can be expected. This XXL Bundestag would be the second largest parliament in the world after the Chinese People’s Congress. “
Info: There are 709 MPs in the still-Bundestag. 151 new ones would be added.