EXCLUSIVE – According to our Ifop-Fiducial survey for LCI and Le Figaro, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are still in the lead in the 1st round of the presidential election, in all configurations. Xavier Bertrand, him, remains in 3rd position but would suffer from a possible candidacy of Eric Zemmour, just like the president of the RN.
LCI editorial staff – 2021-09-06T07:24:00.000+02:00
Éric Zemmour spoilsports on the right? Although he has not yet formalized his candidacy, the polemicist has made a breakthrough with 6 to 7% of the voting intentions for the 2022 presidential election, according to the results of the last wave of our Ifop-Fiducial barometer for LCI and Le Figaro published this Sunday. “Eric Zemmour’s breakthrough is real, decrypts Frédéric Dabi, Managing Director Opinion of Ifop. Benefiting from the support of voters on the right and on the far right, the Zemmour candidacy is potentially likely to reshuffle the game on the right without, however, in this investigation, preventing a second round Macron – Le Pen duel “.
The breakthrough of the polemicist has something to worry about two candidates: Marine Le Pen – systematically in the second round despite everything – and Xavier Bertrand, who, even if he retains the third place in the first round, suffers a slight erosion.
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Bertrand ahead of his competitors on the right
If he is the candidate for the right, and if Éric Zemmour does not appear, Xavier Bertrand would get 17% of the vote, against 24% for Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. The president of Hauts-de-France is ahead of all the competitors of his political family, starting with Valérie Pécresse, who would collect 14% in the first round. Michel Barnier capped him at 11%, Eric Ciotti at 7% and Philippe Juvin at 5%.
Note that, according to our survey, Xavier Bertrand would be the only one to win in the second round against Emmanuel Macron, with 53% against 47% for the current tenant of the Élysée. Valérie Pécresse, she would be on par with the Head of State, with 50% of the vote.
Le Pen losing regardless of the 2nd round
In the second round, whatever the configuration, Marine Le Pen is given the loser. In the event of a duel against Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the National Rally would win 44% of the vote, against 56% for the President of the Republic. In the event of a duel with Xavier Bertrand, she would obtain 40% of the vote, the president of Hauts-de-France 60%. Against Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen is also far behind: 42% against 58%.
The left still fragmented
This poll also confirms the fragmentation of the left, which sees no candidate standing out. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would thus win between 8 and 10% of the vote, Anne Hidalgo between 7 and 9%, the winner of the ecological primary between 7.5 and 8%, and Fabien Roussel, leader of the Party. Communist, between 2 and 2.5%. Tested in a single configuration, the candidacy of Arnaud Montebourg, who declared himself this Saturday, would only collect 3%.
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Survey conducted via self-administered questionnaires from August 31, June to September 2, 2021, with a sample of 1334 people registered on the electoral rolls, taken from a sample of 1505 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. more.
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