why it is still early to predict the impact of the 4th wave on the hospital

why it is still early to predict the impact of the 4th wave on the hospital
why it is still early to predict the impact of the 4th wave on the hospital

The number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients rose above the 7,000 mark on Monday, including nearly 1,000 in critical care. But it is still too early to predict the harshness of this fourth wave, in particular because of the possible impact of vaccination.

“Nobody can say that it does not exist and that there is no fourth wave.” From positive cases to hospitalizations, all the indicators are back in France, testifying to the resumption of the Covid-19 epidemic due to the proliferation of the Delta variant.

This Monday, the number of hospitalized coronavirus patients rose above the 7,000 mark, including nearly 1,000 in critical care. With 607 new hospitalizations in 24 hours, 7,079 patients are now treated for Covid in hospitals. At the same time, critical care services received 135 new patients in 24 hours, compared to 16 on Sunday. This figure of new 24-hour ICU admissions had not been so high since early June

“We are witnessing an exponential increase in the number of positive tests. But we are also seeing an increase in the number of hospitalizations and people in intensive care which seems rather linear. Perhaps we can hope that this is reassuring, but it’s a little too early to tell “, explained Dr. Daniel Scimeca, general practitioner in Île-de-France.

First wave with a “significant” proportion of vaccinated

According to this health professional, many unknowns surround this new wave, given that it is the first which occurs “with a significant proportion of the vaccinated population”.

To date in France, 59.7% of the total population has received at least one dose and 49.9% now has a complete vaccination schedule, i.e. 40,264,973 and 33,624,428 people respectively.

“We must be humble. We do not know exactly what will happen. We can hope that there will be an impact with a population almost at 50% fully vaccinated. (…) But the proportion of positive tests shows that the virus is circulating. It has not disappeared. Does it cause hospitalizations and deaths? Yes, it is. If it is the case in a more dampened way than the other waves, it is ‘is a pretty good sign, “said Dr. Daniel Scimeca.

Given that it takes about fifteen days to three weeks for the contaminations to have an impact on hospitalizations, it will be possible “before the fateful date of August 1”, when the expanded health pass will come into force in transport or even in restaurants, to “see clearly”, according to the general practitioner.

Clement Boutin BFMTV reporter

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