CORONAVIRUS – A real sword of Damocles. While deconfined France cautiously begins to emerge in the evening, the threat of a new rebound in the coronavirus epidemic is never far away. This cautious lull which extends to the northern hemisphere is the latest episode in the fight against the pandemic, whose global course is to find in graph commented in the video at the top of this article.
To produce this video, we have chosen to rely on the figures consolidated by Our World In Data, managed in particular by researchers from the University of Oxford and reference for many scientists (we have also smoothed the daily figures by averaging over 7 days, in order to have a more readable reading of the graph). Figures that stop at the end of May … on a positive note in Europe, but very gloomy in India.
After three distinct epidemic waves, but staggered in time for the different regions of the world, the Covid has thus started a rapid and marked ebb, passing in France from more than 35,000 daily cases at the beginning of April to less than 10,000 at the end of May. At the same time, the number of people admitted to critical care dropped back below 3,000 patients, a figure that had not been reached since February.
The peril of the Indian variant
A clear improvement therefore, to be compared with our neighbors, which similar figures have prompted to relax their distancing measures, like the United States where the mask is no longer mandatory outside. To what do we owe this improvement?
The vaccination campaign, which began in early 2021 in Europe, is of course one of the easiest factors to identify. During the third wave that took shape in March, the number of hospital deaths did not follow a parallel upward trend, remaining at a high but relatively constant level. This is the direct consequence of the vaccination of residents of nursing homes and other health establishments for the elderly, who then have priority over injections.
Then there is the arrival of sunny days. A factor that is difficult to quantify, but the effect of which is undeniable, especially when we look at the year 2020, where from the month of May, the pandemic seemed about to be just a bad memory. … before the second wave of the start of the school year. This phenomenon, despite a different context linked to the vaccination campaign which is in full swing, could recur due to the probable arrival of the Indian variant.
The latter, responsible for an explosion of contaminations and deaths in the subcontinent for several months, has already been spotted in Great Britain. And as for the British variant, its detection on French soil is probably only a matter of weeks. Across the Channel, he would be responsible for the slight increase in the incidence observed for a week. The worst is not certain, however: studies have shown that the vaccines authorized in France were effective against this new variant, after the injection of the two doses. More than ever, it is vaccination that will prevent a new epidemic tide.
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