the epidemic has not yet returned to Lorraine, the proof in figures

the epidemic has not yet returned to Lorraine, the proof in figures
the epidemic has not yet returned to Lorraine, the proof in figures

Just a year ago, France entered the second wave of the coronavirus. The Covid-19 epidemic had flared from mid-October in our regions, and several departments had been placed under curfew, before a second national confinement.

A year later, the government calls for caution. “The risk of a real epidemic resumption cannot be excluded”, said Gabriel Attal on Wednesday. The spokesperson referred above all to “the beginnings of a rebound” in France.

Is the epidemic starting again? Using several indicators (incidence rate, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions), we carried out an inventory of the situation in our departments in Lorraine.

An incidence rate of less than 50 everywhere in Lorraine … but increasing in the Meuse

It is one of the most closely monitored indicators since the start of the epidemic: the disease incidence rate. This is the number of new positive cases of Covid-19 over a week, for a population of 100,000 inhabitants.

In the four departments of Lorraine, the incidence rate is still, as of October 22, 2021, below the alert threshold set at 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

However, the situation deteriorated in Meuse : while the incidence rate had fallen to 7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (October 7), it rose in a few days and is now around 30 in this department.

In the three other Lorraine departments, the incidence rate has been falling in recent weeks; this is no longer the case, although no increase can be reported for the moment.

In the Grand Est, hospitalizations still down slightly

Hospitalizations for suspected Covid-19 in the Grand Est had dropped considerably between the end of April and the beginning of August 2021: from 2,600, to 409 in mid-summer (August 6).

But, a month later, the “Covid patients” were again more numerous (531, September 6, 2021). This early rebound was ultimately not confirmed.

As of October 20, we thus counted 372 people hospitalized, including 60 in intensive care in the Grand Est. These numbers are stable, or even a slight decrease in recent weeks.

An incomparable situation with October 2020

After the 2nd wave of October 2020, can we fear a 4th wave, a year later, in our departments? For now, the situation has nothing to do with last fall, when hospitalizations had risen sharply from the beginning of October.

In the fight against the epidemic, there is also a “weapon” against the serious forms of Covid-19 which was not yet available a year ago: vaccination. About 66% of the population is fully vaccinated in the Meuse, 72% in Moselle and Meurthe-et-Moselle, and 75% in the Vosges.

All of these factors mean that the situation is still under control in our hospitals today: 7% of intensive care beds are occupied in Meurthe-et-Moselle, 13% in Meuse and Vosges, and 18% in Moselle.


epidemic returned Lorraine proof figures

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