When there is no more, is there still? – It’s no secret that Bitcoin’s crash since its last ATH has strongly shaken the crypto market. And according to analyst JP Morgan, this massacre is far from over, despite the positive signs of a possible recovery observed since.
Traders with fear in their stomachs
We will have to wait before a lasting recovery, according to analysts at JP Morgan which foresee a price drop bitcoin in the short term. In his latest research note, the JPMorgan strategist, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, indicates that the diminution momentary demand from institutional could bring down the price of BTC below $ 30,000.
Panigirtzoglou evokes a reluctance of institutional to acquire BTC following the crash that made shake the $ 30,000, May 19, 2021. However, this observation does not seem to apply to MicroStrategy who has took advantage of the crash to stock up on BTC at a lower price.
Panigirtzoglou plans a bitcoin between $ 24,000 and $ 36,000 over the medium term, based on the volatility ratios of BTC to gold:
“The fair value of bitcoin based on a bitcoin to gold volatility ratio of about x4 would be 1/4 of $ 145,000 or $ 36,000. The fair value of bitcoin based on the current volatility ratio of bitcoin to gold of around x6 would be 1/6 of $ 145,000 or $ 24,000. So we see a fair value range of $ 24,000 to $ 36,000 over the medium term. “
Give up Bitcoin in favor of gold?
On the other hand, the analyst confirms the theoretical objective from a bitcoin to 145 000 dollars from JP Morgan over the long term. The basis of this objective rests on assumptions of “Convergence of the volatility of bitcoin towards that of gold”, as well as a “Equalization of allocations from Bitcoin to those of gold in investors’ portfolios”.
For Panigirtzoglou, the trend, which for the moment remains bullish over the long term, s’inverserait if the BTC were to stumble in the short term.
To top it off, JPMorgan suggested that large institutional investors sell their bitcoins to buy gold at the height of the crash. As a reminder, Bitcoin trades at 38 755 dollars at the time of writing this article.
JPMorgan’s analyzes predict rather gloomy times in the near term, as long-term 6-digit bitcoin hope remains. Investment bank CEO Jamie Dimon calls for regulation of the cryptosphere for healthy growth of cryptocurrencies.